Combo The Black Swan - Fooled By Randomness

Giới thiệu Combo The Black Swan - Fooled By Randomness

Combo The Black Swan - Fooled By Randomness

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.

Reviews by Bill Gates: 

Everyone wants to succeed in life. But what causes some of us to be more successful than others? Is it really down to skill and strategy - or something altogether more unpredictable? This book is the bestselling sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. It is all about luck: more precisely, how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the markets - we hear an entrepreneur has 'vision' or a trader is 'talented', but all too often their performance is down to chance rather than skill. It is only because we fail to understand probability that we continue to believe events are non-random, finding reasons where none exist. "One of the smartest books of all time." (Fortune). "An iconoclastic tour de force...nothing escapes his Exocets." (Evening Standard). "Brilliant." (John Kay). "Excellent and thought-provoking...an entertaining book." (Financial Times). "Wall Street's principal dissident." (Malcolm Gladwell).